[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131714
SWODY2
SPC AC 131713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM 15 WNW BTR
40 WNW JAN 10 SW UOX 40 WNW MSL 55 WNW CHA 45 NNE ATL 35 SSE AND 20
WSW FLO 30 ESE FAY 35 N EWN 35 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 35 N
PIE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY FORECAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS
RIVER WILL DEAMPLIFY / MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF 
THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS LIKEWISE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN...AS PRIMARY LOW SHIFTS NNEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO QUEBEC WITH TIME. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- AND THUS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL -- SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALONG REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MS / ERN LA EWD INTO NRN FL / GA / COASTAL CAROLINAS...
DESPITE A BROAD AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
PERIOD...ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER
THE AREA.  THIS AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...THUS LIMITING CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER -- ALBEIT QUITE LIMITED -- WOULD
LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...WHERE
COMBINATION OF MARGINALLY-SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD ALLOW A WEAK TORNADO SPIN-UP BENEATH A
BRIEFLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT.  LIKEWISE...FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST COULD ALSO SUPPORT A SIMILAR THREAT FOR A
BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO.  OVERALL HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF SUCH AN
EVENT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW THUS NOT WARRANTING THE INCLUSION OF
ANY PROBABILITY LINES THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 02/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.