[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB 35 N PIE
...CONT... 30 ESE GPT 60 NNE MOB 20 SSE 0A8 30 ESE BHM 25 NE ANB 35
N ATL 15 WSW AHN 30 WSW AGS 35 SSE AGS 35 W CHS 25 NNE CHS 30 N CRE
15 NW OAJ 35 N EWN 15 ESE ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH A
NRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN U.S. MONDAY AND OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM VORT MAX AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND CONSOLIDATE WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP AS SRN STREAM VORT MAX
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CAROLINA COASTS.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD VEER AND WEAKEN MONDAY AS PRIMARY LOW
LEVEL JET LIFTS TOWARD THE NERN U.S. AND GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL
TEND TO LIMIT NEWD ADVECTION OF MODIFYING GULF AIR AND RESULTING
DESTABILIZATION INTO GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL CAROLINAS. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF AL AND GA EARLY
MONDAY. INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE
BASED STORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM SRN AL...SWRN GA INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME SHOULD
LIMIT POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD INCREASINGLY STABLE
AIR.

OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE
CAROLINA COASTS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO SPREAD OVER RICHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM.

..DIAL.. 02/13/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.