[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121734
SWODY2
SPC AC 121733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
PSX 10 W CLL 35 SW TXK 50 SSW HRO 35 NW POF 25 S CGI 35 ENE DYR 40
SW CBM 45 SW LUL 30 SSW GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE MFE 45 SW ALI
45 NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 25 ESE DUA 40 ENE BVO 15 WSW SZL 35 SE BRL 25
WSW JXN 40 ESE DTW 10 NE EKN 15 WNW AND 35 E MCN 35 SE TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY / WRN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITHIN
SRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD.

THIS TROUGH -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS --
WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME...CROSSING THE TN VALLEY / ERN GULF LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER KS / OK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME / MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY.  TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS E TX / THE OZARKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE LOWER OH / TN / LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX
GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...E TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY / CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO RETREAT EWD AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING SLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
MOIST ADVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THIS PERIOD.  AREA OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING SHOULD BE MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AR / LA / SE TX EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD VORT MAX / LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY ELEVATED
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN LA DURING THE
DAY MAY OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES.  WITH STRONG /
WEAKLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME
THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY -- AND EWD TOWARD SRN MS / SRN AL LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES / COOLING ALOFT SHOULD
OVERSPREAD E TX / AR BEHIND INITIAL PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.  DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/ TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
FORECAST...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WOULD LIKELY POSE
A THREAT FOR HAIL / LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY FROM
CENTRAL AND ERN AR SWWD ACROSS NWRN LA INTO PARTS OF E TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THREAT TO
DECREASE...LIMITED THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO -- MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MS WRN TN INTO THE EVENING.

..GOSS.. 02/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.