[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120555
SWODY2
SPC AC 120554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI FEB 11 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
PSX 55 E CLL 30 NNW GGG 25 ENE PGO 30 NE FYV 20 ESE SGF 20 SE TBN 55
NNW POF 20 SSW CGI 10 SSE DYR 10 NNE UOX 35 NNE JAN 20 E MCB 30 S
HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MFE 50 SW ALI 45
NW NIR 15 ENE AUS 50 NE ACT 25 ESE DUA 15 SSW MKO 40 ENE BVO 45 SSW
OJC 35 E MKC 30 SSW IRK 40 ENE UIN 10 S BMI 10 SW LAF MIE 25 SE DAY
30 NNW HTS 10 ENE 5I3 25 ENE HSS 25 W AND 40 NNW MCN 15 SW ABY 25 S
TLH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CA HAS BEGUN ADVANCING EWD AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD INTO THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE EAST INTO MO BY NOON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH OK AND NW TX WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
SWRN MO INTO WRN AR AND ERN TX.


...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH TX
LATER TODAY AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF AR AND SRN MO WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE TX AND
LA COASTS. DESPITE THE MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -18C AT 6 KM ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL SET THE STATE FOR DESTABILIZATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY SUNDAY
ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY AND GIVE WAY TO ADVANCING
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF SRN MO...AR AND LA.
AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT IN DRY SLOT...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 900 TO 1200 J/KG POSSIBLE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN MO INTO AR...LA AND POSSIBLY SWD INTO
PARTS OF SERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...SERN U.S....

AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PERSIST INTO
THE SERN STATES MUCH OF SUNDAY. THOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL
EXIST IN THIS AREA...POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
HEATING WILL RESULT IN MEAGER INSTABILITY. WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS
MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.