[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 170635
SWODY2
SPC AC 170633

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...WITH AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS REMAINING GENERALLY
DRY/STABLE.  FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS CA/ORE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY LIGHTING STRIKE. OVERALL HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.

...SRN HALF OF FL...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND S OF SWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WARM-SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED
FEATURE WITHIN ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY
MARGINAL /AROUND 30 KT/ 0-6 KM SHEAR ABOVE WARM SECTOR ALL SUGGEST
THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. 

...CA...
MODELS DEPICT A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN
CA/ORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COOL MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A LAYER OF MEAGER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION.  MINIMAL COVERAGE OF
LIGHTNING ANTICIPATED ATTM PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF A GENERAL THUNDER
LINE ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS.. 12/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM