[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 171728
SWODY2
SPC AC 171727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW PIE 25 E SGJ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL...
SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NWRN GULF
COAST...IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS/SERN STATES TO
OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC/SC COAST WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT
TRACKS NEWD...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN FL.

WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN FL MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT UPPER FORCING AND THE WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...CA/SRN ORE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC AT 35N 144W.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS NEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST.  THE SRN
EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NRN CA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FARTHER INLAND TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.  GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN OCEANIC
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING PERSISTENT STRIKES WITH THIS TROUGH...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRIKES ALONG AND MAINLY
OFFSHORE THE COAST OF CENTRAL/NRN CA AND SRN ORE.  INLAND COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
LINE ACROSS THIS AREA.

..PETERS.. 12/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM