[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161716
SWODY2
SPC AC 161715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE CRP 25 SW COT
15 N DRT 15 W SJT 40 NE ABI 15 SE FTW 25 NNW BPT 35 ENE LCH 35 NNW
GPT 20 NNE VLD 50 ESE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC ON
SATURDAY...WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.  MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD TO ALONG
THE WEST COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.  SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW
MOVING INTO FAR W TX...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY ON DAY 2 AS IT
TRACKS INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH...NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS ORE/NRN CA AND ALONG ERN PERIPHERY
OF ERN PACIFIC RIDGE...IS PROGGED TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED AS IT TRACKS
FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO ACROSS TX TO TN VALLEY/AL/GA.

...TX INTO THE GULF COAST REGION...
BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
FAR SRN FL WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE NRN
GULF.  A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY BY END OF DAY 1 PERIOD/START OF DAY 2 JUST OFF THE S
TX COAST.  THIS LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE
FRONT...REACHING THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRONGER UPPER
FORCING WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  HOWEVER...WAA REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SAME TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/SE TX EWD
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TO FAR SRN GA/FL.  WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

...CENTRAL FL...
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT IN CENTRAL
FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND DEEP
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
UPPER FORCING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THE COVERAGE...AND THUS PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK.

..PETERS.. 12/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM