[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BRO 45 NNE MFE
15 NNW ALI 25 S VCT 50 ESE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S ISP 15 SW EWB 55
NNE HYA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
UPPER GRTLKS REGION/NWRN ONTARIO ON FRI.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
FROM THE SERN STATES EARLY FRI TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SAT.  THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN FL WWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF BASIN FRI NIGHT.

UPSTREAM...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE WRN
PARTS OF NOAM...WITH A RATHER ACTIVE SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NRN MEXICO.  AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE FROM THE NRN BAJA REGION AND THEN PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM
WHILE TRANSLATING QUICKLY TOWARD NRN MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT.  TAIL-END
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF BASIN WILL REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD
THE S TX COAST BY EARLY SAT.

...COASTAL S TX...
BACKING FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE WILL
INDUCE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS OF S TX FRI AFTN/NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...BANDS OF
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...PRIMARILY FRI NIGHT ACROSS COASTAL
S TX AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEARBY GULF WATERS.  EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS.

...COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI AFTN WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF
SHOWERS.  ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE CLOUD TOPS MAY APPROACH MINUS 20C...ESPECIALLY OWING TO SUCH
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

..RACY.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM