[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151731
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE MFE 55 NNE MFE
35 NE CRP 50 SSE LBX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SBY 35 ESE DOV
JFK 10 ENE PSF LCI 50 S BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S EYW MIA 50 NNE
PBI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS SUGGEST A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
MORE PROMINENT ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROGGED TO ELONGATE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS.  IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW...A STRONG UPPER JET...NOW OVER THE GULF STATES...WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH...UPSTREAM...A BROAD TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AS THE EXIT
REGION OF AN INTENSE ZONAL CENTRAL PACIFIC JET NOSES TOWARD THE
CALIFORNIA COAST.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...THE LEADING EDGE OF ONE COLD
INTRUSION WILL PROGRESS OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.  A WEAK REINFORCING SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS TEXAS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NATION...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MINIMAL.

...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS DO SUGGEST STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NEAR
AND NORTHEAST OF SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY.  ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS/SHIFTS EAST OF COASTAL
AREAS.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z AHEAD OF FRONT
NEAR COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL END EARLY AS FRONT
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE...AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.

...SOUTH TEXAS...
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/SOUTH OF FRONT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  MOST ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER.

..KERR.. 12/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM