[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140600
SWODY2
SPC AC 140559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW HUM 30 NNW MOB
25 E CSG 25 SW AGS 35 NE FLO 15 NNE RWI 15 ENE RIC BWI 15 NE PHL 20
SSW JFK 40 SSE ISP ...CONT... 35 ESE VRB 45 WSW FMY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG NRN JET STREAM WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THU.  BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES THU AFTN...BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE-TILT AND EJECTING NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY
FRI.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SRN
AL ACROSS SRN GA DURING THU...THEN REDEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL.

...NRN/CNTRL FL...SRN GA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM SRN AL SWD INTO THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT 12Z THU ALONG THE AXIS OF A 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ.  TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THAT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO NRN FL AND SRN GA THU AFTN...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK.  NONETHELESS...HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
TURNING AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE WARM SECTOR
WILL CONTAIN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
THE THREAT DOES WARRANT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

DURING THU NIGHT...AS THE LLJ AND SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TRANSLATE/
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.  STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE GULF STREAM...BUT WEAK CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE COAST MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ISOLD STRONGER-SEVERE TSTMS.

..RACY.. 12/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM