[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 131735
SWODY2
SPC AC 131734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 40 SE COT
30 WSW AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 50 ENE MLU JAN MAI 55 W CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...INTERACTING IMPULSES...EMBEDDED WITHIN BELTS OF
WESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK...ARE ALREADY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES.  PERHAPS OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO THIS PROCESS IS A
VIGOROUS JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...NOW DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING
INTO A BROAD CLOSED LOW BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG
MID/UPPER JET...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST OF
THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...INTO/THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/PARTS OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING PATTERN...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LEADING
EDGE OF THIS INTRUSION SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE THROUGH WESTERN/
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH
COLD AIR ALREADY DAMMED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...SLOW TO MODIFY.  THUS DESPITE ONGOING
MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...POTENTIAL
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LOW...AND LIKELY GENERALLY LIMITED TO
MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

...GULF STATES...
LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS WESTERN GULF
COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUING
WARMING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. 
THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
STEEP...NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH 1000 J/KG EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  IF
THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...BEFORE STRONGER
FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM