[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 130558
SWODY2
SPC AC 130557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST MON DEC 12 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE CRP AUS 30 NNE
CRS 20 WSW DEQ HOT 50 E PBF 35 E GWO 45 SSW CBM 20 WNW DHN 55 W CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES TO 140W...FORCING THE NPAC JET NWD INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA.  DOWNSTREAM...THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BECOME DISLODGED AND
WILL EJECT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY WED EVE WHILE
PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM. THE NRN STREAM WILL START TO
AMPLIFY BY WED NIGHT AS THE EPAC RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARD THE COAST...
WITH A SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS STATES. 

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SEWD IN WAKE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SERN TX AND THE LWR MS
VLY WED AFTN/EVE.  A WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SERN
TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN LA BY WED NIGHT.  

...SERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY...
CONVECTION ONGOING EARLY WED ACROSS ERN TX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY AS A MODEST SSWLY LLJ
TRANSLATES EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 
TAIL END OF THE WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION MAY INTENSIFY WED AFTN
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND SRN LA WHERE A WARM SECTOR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 60S DEW POINTS...MAY MOVE ASHORE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  PRESENCE OF 50-60 KTS OF H5 FLOW ATOP THE
INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE STORMS AS FAR
N AS THE UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH SRN LA AND PERHAPS EXTREME SRN
MS WED AFTN/EVE.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IF A SUBSTANTIAL WARM
SECTOR CAN MOVE ASHORE.  

ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT MATERIALIZES DURING THE AFTN WILL LIKELY
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...AND
FARTHER EWD WHERE RESIDUAL WEDGE LIMITS INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MS
RVR.

..RACY.. 12/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM