[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 050527
SWODY2
SPC AC 050526

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW APF 40 NE PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRO CRP 45 SE AUS CLL
UTS LCH 60 SSE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BELT OF BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT ATTM IN UPPER AIR
DATA AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...FROM NRN ROCKIES TO 4-CORNERS
REGION AND SRN PLAINS...BECOMING NEARLY STRAIGHT SWLY NEWD ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGION.  RIDGE CONNECTING PACIFIC LONGWAVE
RIDGE WITH BLOCKING HIGH OVER NUNAVUT IS BEING PENETRATED BY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN BC/NWRN ALTA.  THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND EVOLVE INTO
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CO/WY BY 07/12Z.

MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM WRN NC SWWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL LA TO VICINITY BRO...IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SERN CONUS...REACHING SRN FL BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AND
STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL GULF.  REINFORCING COLD SURGE WILL PRECEDE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MIDLEVEL CYCLONE ACROSS SRN PLAINS.

...S FL...EARLY PERIOD...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING FIRST FEW
HOURS OF PERIOD WITH PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT.  THIS THUNDER AREA
IS MARGINAL...WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED IN BOTH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
AND MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...BOTH ETA AND ETA-KF
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE OR NO CINH FOR EXPECTED SFC PARCELS
WITH TEMPS LOW-MID 70S F AND LOW 70S DEW POINTS.  UPPER REACHES OF
BUOYANT AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH 250-500 J/KG MLCAPES EXTEND INTO
FAVORABLE ICE PROCESS ZONES IN THOSE SOUNDINGS.  ALREADY MARGINAL
THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE SHUNTED SWD INTO STRAITS...BAHAMAS AND
CUBA THROUGHOUT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DRY/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PENINSULAR FL.

...TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN...NOCTURNAL...
IN RESPONSE TO APCHG CENTRAL ROCKIES LOW...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 07/00Z ACROSS
NW GULF AND PORTIONS TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
STILL WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT NOW
MOVING SEWD INTO NWRN GULF.  HOWEVER...WAA ATOP THAT LAYER SHOULD
STEEPEN LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERATE BUOYANCY IN
COMBINATION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE SFC.  ANIMATION OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATES RELATED NEAR-SATURATION OF THAT LAYER -- ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 850-700 MB -- COULD GENERATE ELEVATED MUCAPES 100-400
J/KG...WITH ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OF BASAL WARMING/COOLING IN THAT
LAYER RESULTING IN LARGE RESPECTIVE INCREASE/DECREASE OF BUOYANCY.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH SHALLOW
LOWER-MIDTROPOSPHERIC LAYER OVER PORTIONS CO/WY/SERN ID/NERN
UT...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. 
HOWEVER...BITTER COLD SFC AIR...ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE...AND
VERY WEAK BUOYANCY INDICATE THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

..EDWARDS.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM