[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 051704
SWODY2
SPC AC 051704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW SRQ 45 E MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BRO CRP HDO BWD
10 WSW FTW TYR LCH 70 SSE 7R4.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DOWNSTREAM OF CONFLUENT BELTS OF POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
...BROADLY CYCLONIC INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET CORE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE MID AND NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. 

ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES.  THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NOSING OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND IS
FORECAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW REGIME...PRIMARY SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ALL AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS...BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...A WEAK LOW/WAVE COULD
DEVELOP ALONG LEAD BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

...FLORIDA...
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK UPPER FORCING APPEAR
LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. 
HOWEVER...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH...
SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BOTH THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  OTHERWISE...PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
COASTAL AREAS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE KEYS.

...TEXAS...
MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY NIGHT.  INSTABILITY/FORCING COULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.  ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ABOVE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

..KERR.. 12/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM