[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041730
SWODY2
SPC AC 041729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW
BVE 30 S MOB 35 SSW TOI 40 SE CSG 30 SE MCN 15 SSE AYS 10 ESE GNV 45
NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 7R4 30 NE MCB 30
WSW AND 40 WSW SOP RZZ 40 ESE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS THIS PERIOD.  FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY..AND THEN NEWD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER GA -- IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ENEWD WITH TIME...CLEARING THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE
EVENING.  MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/SWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH 06/12Z.

...ERN GULF COAST REGION...
THOUGH COOL/STABLE NELY FLOW IN DAMMING REGIME E OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL LIMIT ANY NEWD EXPANSION OF WARM SECTOR...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN AL/SRN GA THE FL PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF NRN
FL.  MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION OF THIS MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BEGIN
BY MID-MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. 
CONVECTION -- LIKELY ONGOING INVOF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- SHOULD INTENSIFY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION...AIDED BY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT
OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WHICH CAN OCCUR...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT
DEGREE OF THREAT IS SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. 
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS
WITHIN LINEAR BANDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT.  HOWEVER...WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD
FORECAST TO VEER WEAKLY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE WITH HEIGHT...A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME INTO THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES OFF
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST...AND AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.

..GOSS.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM