[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040659
SWODY2
SPC AC 040658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E VRB 35 SW APF
...CONT... 40 SSW PNS 10 ESE LGC GSP 20 SSE GSO RZZ 50 E ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE GA/FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SFC
LOW OVER CNTRL/NRN GA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EWD
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SERN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY
MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 40 TO 50 KT SHOWN BY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK
HEATING.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SFC LOW WILL
BE IN PLACE IN CNTRL GA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SC
AND SRN NC. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD DURING THE DAY...THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO ERN NC AND THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SC. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE TWO
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. THE
VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A 60 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFFSHORE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT APPEARS SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE
TOO WIDESPREAD ALLOWING FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY.

..BROYLES.. 12/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM