[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 031741
SWODY2
SPC AC 031740

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
LCH 20 WNW LCH 30 W ESF 10 WSW JAN 30 ENE 0A8 20 SE ATL 40 NNW CAE
20 NNW VDI 15 E ABY 50 WSW AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MFE 30 E BAZ 50
WSW TXK 45 SSW MSL 35 W HKY 30 ENE CHO 45 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SE CHS
30 WNW AYS 50 W CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH SLOW AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE FORECAST
TO OCCUR WITH TIME.  A BROAD ZONE OF FAST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS TROUGH.

SURFACE LOW -- INITIALLY FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
REGION -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE APPALACHIANS
WSWWD INTO SERN TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WARM
SECTOR LIKELY CONFINED TO SRN SC/GA/FL/SRN AL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...THE SOUTHEAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SRN FRINGES OF STRONGEST WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN INVOF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENTLY-STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.  MAIN QUESTION
WITH REGARDS TO DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO REVOLVE AROUND
DEGREE OF FORCING -- AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
-- ALONG AND S OF FRONT WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/SUSTENANCE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION -- GENERALLY CONFINED
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE ANAFRONTAL-TYPE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WITH
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED N OF BOUNDARY...ANY HAIL
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY-SEVERE AT BEST.  IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...AND DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS MAY
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NEARLY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT.  WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO SURFACE BOUNDARY...LONG-LIVED/WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY EVEN IF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT
RISK FORECAST -- FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NEWD INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL GA.

..GOSS.. 12/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM