[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 030546
SWODY2
SPC AC 030545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST FRI DEC 02 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
7R4 30 SE LCH 10 NNW LCH 10 N POE 40 NNW ESF 45 E RMG 20 W AND 30
ESE AND 30 WSW CAE 25 SSE AGS 10 NW VDI 40 ENE ABY 15 WNW PNS 10 NW
HUM 15 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BRO 25 SW ALI 25
S BAZ 25 W TYR 35 SE HOT 25 NNW TRI 50 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45 ENE JAX
35 NNE CTY 35 S AAF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND FAR SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...GULF COAST STATES/FAR SRN APPALACHIANS...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL GRADUALLY DIG SWD
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. IN RESPONSE...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MID-MS VALLEY INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW
APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE FASTER AND BE POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S F WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG BY MIDDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW
MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...SFC HEATING COMBINED
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN
PLACE SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO KEEP A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 12/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM