[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 020556
SWODY2
SPC AC 020555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
CHA 30 SE CHA 20 SSE RMG 30 SE BHM 40 NNE MEI 30 NNW HEZ 40 SSW MLU
45 S ELD 15 NE ELD 25 N UOX 40 N MSL 30 NW CHA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW POE 30 E CRS
10 SSE DEQ 45 ENE MKL 25 SE LOZ 25 NW RDU 25 SSE FAY 20 WSW AGS 10 W
AUO 30 NNW PIB 40 WSW POE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE TN AND LWR MS
VLYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED AMPLIFICATION
ON SATURDAY AS COMPLEX TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE NWRN STATES
REDEVELOPS E/SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/RCKYS.  A SERIES OF WEAK
IMPULSES...NONE OF WHICH APPEAR PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ATTM...WILL SWEEP E/NE FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE TN VLY AND
CNTRL APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD.  SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
LEAD DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL OK EARLY SATURDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK ENE INTO SRN VA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...LWR MS/TN VLYS...
INCREASING WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CARRY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/EML/ PLUME ENE ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/GULF CST STATES ON SATURDAY. 
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF TN/MS...IN REGION OF
MAXIMUM UPLIFT ON NERN EDGE OF EML WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED N OF WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OK SURFACE WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD ENE INTO PARTS OF AL...ERN TN AND
GA LATER IN THE DAY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND CONTINUES TO MOISTEN. 
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE MAY DEVELOP TO YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL.

ADDITIONAL...POSSIBLE SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP W OR WSWWD
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS...AND PERHAPS SRN AR/NRN LA...LATER SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS APPROACH OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SURFACE WAVE ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS REGION.  AMPLE 
/40+ KT/ DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. 
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF THE SHEAR...EXPECTED DEGREE OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOB 1000 J PER KG/ AND NE MOTION 
OF THE STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE INTO THE APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

..CORFIDI/RACY.. 12/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM