[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 310519
SWODY2
SPC AC 310519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT
45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW GBN 30 NNW PHX
25 NNE FLG 4BL 30 NNE MTJ 25 E 4FC 25 NE AKO 25 NW MCK 40 N HLC 25 W
RSL 35 SW DDC 40 NNW GAG 45 ENE GAG 15 W BVO JLN 15 ESE SGF 35 WSW
UNO 40 NNW LIT 25 WSW HOT 25 WNW PRX 35 SW SPS 55 NNE BGS 30 E INK
40 WSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE DRT 10 ESE HDO
35 N VCT 25 WSW GLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PNS 15 SW MAI
10 NE MGR 30 NE AYS 25 ESE SAV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WITH TRAILING PORTIONS EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT
WILL LIKELY STALL. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE NATION. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE NWRN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SWRN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY.

...SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NM AND
CO LATER WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SWD IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SLY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN ITS
WAKE. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SLY WILL ALLOW RICHER MOISTURE
RESIDING FARTHER EAST TO ADVECT INTO ERN NM AND CO WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S EXPECTED UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK
WITH THE FLOW AOB 15 KT THROUGH 6 KM OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT.
STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE
MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
OVER WRN KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.