[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
3B1 45 NNE 3B1 HUL ...CONT... 25 SSW WAL 20 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 10 NE
PSB 30 NNW ITH 45 ENE ART 25 NE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CMX 40 E DBQ 45
S UIN 15 NW FYV 25 NNW ABI 30 NNE FST 55 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM
BLH 30 N EED 25 S SGU 30 ESE 4HV 35 ESE ASE 25 SSW LIC 45 NNW GCK 30
ESE HLC 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW 7R4 20 WSW LUL
45 N MGM 10 SSW AHN 30 SSE SPA 30 W CLT 20 NW HKY 35 NNW TRI 35 NW
JKL 25 ESE LUK 40 WNW CMH 35 NNW CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND...
THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER TO BE NEAR CLEVELAND OH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO FAR WRN NY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO SRN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINBANDS WILL
BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING...SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
EXCEEDING 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF
KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL AFFECT A
BROAD AREA WITH A SEVERE THREAT. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BEGIN IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC GRADUALLY
SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SERN PA AND IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OF ERN
NY WHERE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN MS
VALLEY WITH THE FRONT POSITION FROM NW OK EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN
KS INTO ERN IA BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH SCATTERED
STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY AFTERNOON SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT
20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.0 C/KM NEAR THE FRONT. THESE SOUNDING PROFILES
WOULD RESULT IN STRONG MULTICELL THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
PRESENT MAINLY NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.