[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 311708
SWODY2
SPC AC 311706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW 63S 15 NNE EAT
45 WSW YKM 30 NNE PDX 30 ENE AST 25 ENE HQM CLM 35 WNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 45 ENE COT
25 SE AUS 40 E LFK 10 NNE TOI 20 S CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 35 SSW INW
20 E 4BL 15 ESE EGE 20 ESE FCL 30 SSW IML 25 S HLC 40 WSW EMP 45 SW
JEF 25 W MTO 10 NNW BMG 35 NW SDF 30 NNE HOP 40 SW MEM 10 E TXK 30
NNE DAL 45 SW SPS 55 E LBB 30 SSE LBB 15 NNW MAF 85 SSW P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL DAMPEN
AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. BROAD
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY
MID-DAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO WITH THE STORMS
MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN THE PLAINS OF ERN NM AND SE CO BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE
MTNS IN THE 50S F COMBINED WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 F WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL
REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF HAIL
THREAT WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK
HEATING DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

..BROYLES.. 08/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.