[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300607
SWODY2
SPC AC 300606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
SBY 10 SSW ILG 20 WSW AVP BGM 15 NNW UCA 20 WSW SLK 25 WSW EFK 20 E
BML 25 WSW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 20 N OSH
45 ENE MLI 45 NE COU 30 NNE JLN 30 S END 25 NW CDS 25 NNE HOB 65 WNW
MRF ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 40 NNW BLH 45 E LAS 30 SE CDC 35 SE 4HV 35
ESE GUC 20 WNW LHX 35 NNW GCK 30 WNW RSL 40 S HSI 30 NE GRI 30 SW
MHE 30 NW HON 55 NW ABR 70 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GPT 65 N MOB
25 NW AUO 25 SSW AHN 35 SSE SPA 25 NNE CLT 40 SSW PSK 55 E JKL 35
SSE LEX 35 E BWG 30 NNE HOP 25 WSW EVV 25 NE HUF 15 NNE FWA 20 ENE
DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NERN U.S. BY
WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY TAKING ON EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SEE
LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC/HPC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AVN CONTINUES
TO BE FASTER THAN THE ETA AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC FORECAST.
FARTHER WEST...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE NWRN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SWWD
INTO THE NRN NM EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE EWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRAIL SWWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.


...NERN U.S....

REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES...
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL. KATRINA WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE OH VALLEY. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO BE NEAR
EXTREME WRN NY STATE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND NEWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE N OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S OF THE
FRONT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE NERN U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S LIKELY. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE
TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR E AND SE OF THE LOW CENTER.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ONGOING CONVECTION AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL CAPE WHERE POCKETS OF
SURFACE HEATING CAN DEVELOP. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES WILL PERSIST IN
THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE LOW CENTER. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP.


...NERN NM THROUGH CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
EMANATING FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY IN THIS
AREA. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER S OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT IN THIS AREA MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 08/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.