[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291728
SWODY2
SPC AC 291727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
DCA 55 N RWI AGS 25 NE LGC GAD 45 NNE MSL 10 ENE CKV 45 WNW SDF 30
NE DAY 20 SE YNG 15 ENE PSB 15 W CXY 15 SW DCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 ESE SEM 10 SE
TCL 20 SSE UOX 10 N MEM 25 NNE POF MTO FWA 35 E TOL ...CONT... 55 W
3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 65 ENE STC 20 ESE
RST ALO 35 ESE OMA LNK GLD LIC DEN DGW SHR 40 NE HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
OHIO/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS......

...SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD INTO NERN NM BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE NRN PLAINS... SO THE
GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH KATRINA.

...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...
ALTHOUGH THE CORE WINDS AROUND KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...MID AND HIGH LEVEL WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KATRINA AND THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE. SEVERAL BANDS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
THE CENTER AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM
BANDS. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND EWD FROM
KATRINA AND ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF SOME
HEATING OCCURS IN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ATTM IT APPEARS THE BEST COMBINATION OF
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER CHANCE OF TORNADOES
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE UNGRADED TO A MODERATE
RISK IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOKS...ONCE THE THREAT AREA FOR A LOCALIZED
TORNADO OUTBREAK CAN BE IDENTIFIED.

...ND/SD/WRN MN AND NWRN IA...
STRONG LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE INHIBITED
BY NLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS BEHIND KATRINA  AND DRIER AIR
SPREADING WWD FROM A COOL SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT WOULD SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...THOUGH THE LIMITED MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
STORM COVERAGE MAY BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY AIR
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...SO A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS IS MAINTAINED.

..IMY.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.