[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290621
SWODY2
SPC AC 290620

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
DCA 20 WSW ROA 25 NNE AVL 50 NW AHN 30 E GAD 30 SSW HSV 35 NNW MSL
25 NE CKV 20 NW SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 SSW MFD 10 WNW YNG 15 SSE DUJ 20 N
HGR 45 WSW DCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW BVE 60 NNE MOB
25 WSW 0A8 40 WSW CBM 30 W MEM 30 ENE ARG 20 E SLO 25 NW MIE 40 E
TOL ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 NNE MWN 20 SSE CON 20 WSW HYA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W INL 10 ESE BRD
15 NE SPW 20 NE LNK 30 NNE RSL 35 SE LAA 35 N TAD 55 W COS 40 ENE
CAG 50 SE LND 50 ENE JAC 25 SW LVM 15 SSE GTF 60 ENE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AS A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
START OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY. A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA.


...TN AND OH VALLEYS...

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD AND CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. SEE LATEST
DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC ON KATRINA. STRONG LOW VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL PERSIST E OF THE CENTER AND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST FOR THE
STORM TO INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ONCE THE STORM
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRYER MID LEVEL AIR...THE CHANCE FOR SURFACE
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD INCREASE. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY E AND NE OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD
BREAKS PERMIT SURFACE HEATING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TN VALLEY AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.


...NRN PLAINS...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR MAY BE LIMITED BY ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM
A COOL SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR WITHIN
THE 1-3 KM LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EML WILL SPREAD NEWD ABOVE THE
EXPECTED LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP
WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH ND AND SD. THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CAP AND
EXPECTED POST FRONTAL NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS AREA MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 08/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.