[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281729
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
7R4 25 WSW JAN 30 ESE GWO 30 NW MSL 50 WNW CHA 55 E CHA 30 SW AHN
AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW FHU 10 ENE SAD
40 SSE GNT SAF LVS TCC 40 WNW LBB 35 ESE BGS JCT 30 SSW AUS 25 NNE
CLL 20 ENE GGG 15 W HOT 55 SSW UNO 60 NW CGI 35 ESE DNV 20 E GRR 30
SW HTL 70 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ISN 4BQ WRL 30
N OGD 50 ENE EKO 55 WNW OWY BKE PDT DLS 20 WSW AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE  GULF COASTAL STATES
FROM SERN LA/MS EWD INTO WRN GA....

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL EARLY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST
...AND THEN TURN NNEWD AND MOVE THROUGH MS DURING THE PERIOD. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH COLD
TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOCATED ON THE
ERN SIDE OF KATRINA...FROM SERN LA/ERN MS EWD ACROSS AL AND INTO WRN
GA.

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES...
GIVEN THE SIZE AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXTEND MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN IS NORMALLY
OBSERVED WITH MOST HURRICANES. VERY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND
LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
RAIN BANDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH TORNADOES. TOO EARLY
TO PINPOINT IF AND WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY MIGHT PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR A SMALL AND LOCALIZED TORNADO OUTBREAK. HOWEVER... CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF KATRINA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/TORNADO THREAT...AWAY FROM THE ACTUAL CENTER...WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS AL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. REFERENCE LATEST
NHC FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE KATRINA.

...NRN ROCKIES...
LIFTING SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR HIGH BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MT/ID MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO
ERN MT OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF MT IN SASKATCHEWAN...BUT STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD FAVOR AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...
PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO OH. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A WIND THREAT MAY
EXISTS IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING 
AND THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LOW ATTM.

..IMY.. 08/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.