[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280534
SWODY2
SPC AC 280533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
7R4 25 E HEZ 15 ESE GWO 45 SSE MKL 40 NE HSV 50 E RMG 40 SSW MCN 45
WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW ISN 30 SE MLS
15 S WRL 25 N OGD 35 NE EKO 55 WNW OWY 25 E BKE 25 WSW PDT 20 SSE
DLS 20 WSW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW TUS 15 NE GUP
15 SE TAD 15 ENE P28 40 W UNO 30 WSW OWB 20 N LUK CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
THROUGH PARTS OF MS...AL AND GA...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD
INTO SERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
MORE BAROCLINIC UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND
INTO THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT. HURRICANE KATRINA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MAKE LANDFALL MONDAY
ALONG THE SERN LA COAST. 

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES...

CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR KATRINA TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SERN LA EARLY
MONDAY. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OUTER
RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE
CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD SPREAD NWD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE NWD THROUGH MS...AL AND GA.

...NRN ROCKIES THROUGH ERN MT...

STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES MONDAY. DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES SHOULD
DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HIGH BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE IN THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN MT SWD INTO ID...THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
SPREAD EWD. STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES IN ADDITION TO THE DRY
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF DAMAGING
WIND. MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EPISODE...AND WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5%
WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AOA 6 KM.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINICITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY MODEST FLOW AND SHEAR WITHIN THE
LOWEST 5 KM. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD. THOUGH MODEST KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KM...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.