[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260615
SWODY2
SPC AC 260615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
ROC 30 NNE LBE 20 SE PKB 55 SE LUK 45 NE SDF IND 40 W FWA JXN 45 N
MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
HOB 20 SW TCC 50 E TAD 45 ESE LAA 30 NE LBL 30 S GAG 60 S CDS 50 S
LBB 35 NNW HOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 55 ESE PRC
15 SE PGA 20 N U28 25 NNW CAG 45 NNW IML 25 WNW FNB 40 SSE OTM 20
ESE JVL 10 NW MTW 40 ESE MQT 95 NNW ANJ ...CONT... 30 NE ORF 25 NNE
SOP 35 E HKY 50 SW PSK 20 N SHD 25 N CXY 10 S UCA 35 NW PBG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH NOW CENTERED OVER WRN MANITOBA AND EXTENDING INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY.
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS. BOTH THE ETA
AND THE GFS SUGGEST A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE WRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD.

...GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AREAS...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A MORE SWLY OR
WLY COMPONENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
ONGOING AND MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN ZONE OF BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ALONG AND JUST E OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WHERE SURFACE
HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE RETURNING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FLOW THROUGH 6 KM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AOB 30 KT. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE WRN PA/WRN NY AREA WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND FROM
PARTS OF IND THROUGH OH AND POSSIBLY SERN LOWER MI. FARTHER
EAST...OVER WRN PA INTO WRN NY...THE THREAT APPEARS EVEN MORE
CONDITIONAL GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LESS HEATING. HOWEVER...IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES.

...ERN NM...ERN CO THROUGH WRN TX...

SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN TX AND ERN
NM EARLY SATURDAY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. MODEST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS ERN CO AND ERN NM BELOW NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME AS WELL AS
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SPREAD EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 15 TO 20
KT AT 6 KM. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY MAY
EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WITH A CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO
THE EVENING.


...FL...

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. SEE
LATEST DISCUSSION FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS. AT THIS POINT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN FL WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT TO
EXPERIENCE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OUTER RAINBANDS.
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN
LATER OUTLOOKS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF KATRINA.

..DIAL.. 08/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.