[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251719
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
FYV 30 SSE P28 10 ENE DDC 55 SSW HLC 35 N HLC 20 SSW OMA 35 SSE DSM
20 N UIN 30 NNE SLO 15 ENE HOP 60 N MSL 35 SSW MKL 25 NW MEM 45 SW
ARG 20 NNE FYV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 N BFD 15
S AOO 20 NW SHD 20 NNE AVL ANB 20 W TCL 35 ENE MEI 45 WSW SEM 30 SSW
TOI ABY 10 NE CRE ...CONT... 35 NE CRP 65 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSW
IPL 20 N TRM 40 ENE DAG 30 NNE LAS 20 ENE SGU 20 ESE CNY 15 S CYS 10
NE MHE BRD 40 ESE INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE P07 30 WNW JCT
35 WNW TPL 30 SSE FTW 40 NNE MWL 30 SE CDS 40 ESE PVW 25 ESE HOB 40
SSW INK 20 S FST 25 NE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID MS-VALLEY...

...CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS-VALLEY...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
EWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS FRIDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH SRN NEB AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS STRONG ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD
DURING THE DAY...DESTABILIZATION AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAN
THE GFS SUGGESTING STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.
HOWEVER...BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL KS EXTENDING EWD
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING A
SUPERCELL THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN KS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED IF A COLD POOL CAN
GENERATE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN
PLACE.

...SRN AND CNTRL FL...
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SRN FL
COAST. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS KATRINA TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE PENINSULA REACHING THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FRIDAY ACROSS FL SHOW THE GREATEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE NEAR THE CENTER OF KATRINA
WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. DUE TO THE
ENHANCED SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...A TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE PRESENT WITH ANY MINI-SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND MOVE WWD
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
SHOW 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 15 KT SUGGESTING THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL. THE THREAT MAY DECREASE ACROSS SRN FL
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS KATRINA MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.