[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250600
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
MSN 15 NNW GRR JXN DAY SDF MKL HOT OKC GAG DHT 50 ESE LIC MCK BIE
STJ OTM DBQ 25 N MSN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP COT 60 N
DRT 10 SSE SJT MWL 10 SSW SPS 40 SSE CDS MAF 20 SSW P07 ...CONT...
10 S CZZ PMD BFL BIH TPH MLF 4HV 30 NNE CEZ 50 ESE GUC 10 SSE DEN 10
WNW CYS 10 SE CDR MHE 10 ENE STC 30 NNE ELO ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 45
WSW ELM HGR AVL ANB 0A8 10 NNE PNS TLH 40 SSW CHS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS THRU
THE MID MS VLY AND PARTS OF THE LWR OH VLY....

WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO/ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOW LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...SOUTH
OF RIDGE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG IN CYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF UPPER LOW...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION
OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
EARLY SATURDAY.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS ALREADY BECOMING SUPPRESSED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFIED IMPULSE NOW FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THIS WILL ALLOW VERY SLOW
EASTWARD MIGRATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALSO BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO HOLD FIRM FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST STATES AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VLY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
GIVEN STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OFF THE
ROCKIES...ABOVE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS...
EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS STILL SEEMS
LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.  THIS WILL OCCUR WITH LARGE-
SCALE WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL CAP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND ITS INFLUENCE
ON SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
EXTEND FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY.  SOUTH OF MAIN SURFACE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE TO SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  BOUNDARY LAYER
TO THE WEST/SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE HEATING...AND CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY CENTER
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR INTENSIFICATION OR INITIATION OF NEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT MEAN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER WINDS MAY EXCEED 30 KT... ENHANCING STORM MOTION
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL NEW STORM CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS
THIS REGION...AND ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK WITH
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. 
MEANWHILE...STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
AS KATRINA PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY
...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULD INCREASE AS FLOW
TURNS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...OFFERING BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR.. 08/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.