[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241728
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW
BRD 10 NNE STC 15 SSE MKT 60 WSW DSM 20 NNW FNB 20 NE CNK 20 N HLC
30 SE AKO 25 WSW SNY 20 ENE AIA 35 NNE ANW 40 NE ABR 20 E FAR 45 NW
BRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL
40 NW PMD 30 WNW BIH 20 SSE U31 60 SW DPG 55 N PUC 20 W RWL DGW 45
SE RAP 40 NNW MBG 65 NNW DVL ...CONT... 15 NNW MQT 45 ENE VOK 35 SW
RFD LAF 30 SSW CMH 30 N CRW 15 NW BLF 20 SW TRI 25 E CHA 25 WNW RMG
ANB 15 WNW CSG 50 SSE MCN 30 ENE SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N DRT 45 NNW AUS
30 NNE LFK 50 SE SHV 15 N ELD 35 ESE PGO 50 WSW MKO 15 WSW OKC 30 SE
CDS MAF 30 ESE FST 75 N DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN TO NEB...

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN SK...INTO SRN MANITOBA.  TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN...NWD SHIFTING LLJ INTO NWRN
ONTARIO WILL FAVOR EARLY-MID DAY ACTIVITY SPREADING/DEVELOPING INTO
CANADA.  WITH TIME...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NEB
INTO SWRN MN WILL AID IN STRONG AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...LIKELY
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG PRIOR TO STORM
INITIATION.  DESPITE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING THE FRONTAL
ZONE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...COMBINED WITH
EXPECTED INSTABILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR TO WARRANT A
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. 
WITH TIME FRONTAL FORCING/STORM MERGERS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT AS COMPLEX SPREADS ACROSS NEB.  LESS INTENSE ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS
MN...SUPPORTED LARGELY BY STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING.  LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.


...SOUTH FL...

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SERN PENINSULA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES...FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  FOR THIS
REASON WILL NOT ISSUE AN OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...IF KATRINA
INCREASES SPEED AND THREATENS LANDFALL EARLIER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD AN
OUTLOOK MAY BE REQUIRED.  REF NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..DARROW.. 08/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.