[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231743
SWODY2
SPC AC 231742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
BVO 30 SW END 40 SSW GAG 65 SSW LBL EHA 40 NW GCK 10 E HLC CNK 25 E
MHK CNU 20 SE BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W
RRT 35 NW FAR 20 NE ABR 10 W PIR 10 NE RAP 15 S REJ 40 NE DIK 65 NW
MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW LRD 25 SSW TPL
35 ESE DAL 20 ENE ADM 15 SSE FSI 60 NNW ABI 20 SW BGS 50 SSW MRF
...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 WNW TRM 25 E LAS 50 W RKS 20 NNE BPI JAC 30
WNW MQM 35 SSE S80 15 SW PUW 35 NNW GEG 25 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW
ELO 35 WSW STC 15 SSW FRM 35 WNW OTM 25 ENE JEF POF 35 NE MSL 60 WNW
AND 35 WNW CAE 40 SSW FAY 15 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...DAKOTAS...

SRN BC/AB UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO SK AS UPPER SPEED
MAX EJECTS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WY INTO ND.
 THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS MT FORCING
A SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH...AIDING ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  ALTHOUGH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY PROVE
DISCRETE...STRONG FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOURAGE LINEAR
STRUCTURES WITH TIME AND A SQUALL LINE MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. 
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LATE DAY1 MCS ACTIVITY
WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS KS.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...LIKELY PERSISTING IN SOME FASHION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS
IT SPREADS TOWARD WRN MO.  STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF MCS CLOUD CANOPY...SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS
REGION...IT APPEARS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EVOLVE GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST THINKING IS CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT...SWWD INTO NWRN OK.  LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SLOW ESEWD
PROPAGATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

..DARROW.. 08/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.