[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ANJ 25 ENE VOK
15 N FOD 10 WSW BUB 20 NE MCK 10 WSW RSL 20 NNE EMP 40 N COU 15 SSW
BMI 15 NE MIE 25 S CMH 10 ENE AOO 10 SE IPT 30 NW ALB 10 S LEB PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E OXR 30 SSW MER
15 NW SAC 45 SSE EKA 20 NNE ACV 10 S LMT 10 W OWY 35 SE VEL 35 WNW
FCL 35 S DGW 10 WSW SHR 10 WNW MLS 30 NNW GDV 75 NNE OLF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND NWD INTO CANADA THIS PERIOD.  COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE
WWD EXTENSION OF FRONT ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE PLAINS
SHOULD WEAKEN/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME.

THOUGH WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...CLOUDS / PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FACT THAT STRONGER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF
FRONT SEEMS TO SUGGEST ONLY A VERY LIMITED / LOCALIZED PULSE SEVERE
THREAT.  THEREFORE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM
ACROSS THE OH / TN / MID MS VALLEY REGION.

FURTHER NWWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND WIND
FIELD EXHIBITING FAVORABLE VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT ASSUMING STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  ACROSS THIS REGION...
MODELS DO INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN...AS WELL AS NEAR
LEE TROUGH OVER ERY WY.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIKELIHOOD
OF CAPPING ISSUES ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH LACK OF OBVIOUS
LOW-LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD
REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL REFRAIN FROM
INTRODUCING SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL.

..GOSS.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.