[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140616
SWODY2
SPC AC 140615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 30 NW MER
10 S RBL 30 SSE MHS 60 E MHS 40 NW LOL 20 ENE BAM 40 ENE RKS 20 SE
CPR 30 S 4BQ 45 NE Y22 50 N BIS 45 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DLH 40 NNW RWF
25 WNW MHE 30 NW MHN 40 W GLD 50 NNE GCK 35 N TOP 20 SW DNV 40 SE
DAY 25 NW MRB 40 NNW ILG 20 SSE POU 15 ENE PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL U.S. AS FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND WLY ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  DESPITE THIS SUBTLE CHANGE...AFFECTIVE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...STRETCHING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY REGION INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALONG THIS ZONE WITH VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THIS DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  GRADUALLY WEAKENING DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO FEWER
DIURNALLY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

...NRN PLAINS...

INCREASING WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGH TO
BECOME MORE FOCUSED FROM SERN MT INTO WRN NEB LATE IN THE PERIOD. 
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK ACROSS THIS REGION
IT APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD DUE TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND MODIFYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS. LATEST THINKING IS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
BY EARLY EVENING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NWRN
MN.  HOWEVER FORECAST INSTABILITY /FORCING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 08/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.