[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150555
SWODY2
SPC AC 150554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW
DVL 20 SE DVL 25 SE JMS 60 NE MBG 10 E Y22 70 SSE GDV 35 WSW GDV 50
N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 W BFL 30 WNW
SAC 50 W RBL 50 WNW MHS 10 NW 4LW 15 ESE TWF 40 N RKS 10 WNW CPR 10
E SHR 30 E 3HT 10 SSE HLN 40 W MSO GEG 45 NW 4OM ...CONT... 25 N ELO
30 NE IMT 15 SSE GRB 45 SSW LSE 15 NW YKN 15 SE VTN 40 N IML 55 SSW
HLC 30 WSW CNU 25 SW JEF 20 WSW DEC 25 E MIE 20 NE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.  HOWEVER...AS LEE TROUGH
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED FROM ERN CO INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA...A
NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NWD INTO A REGION OF
INCREASED INTEREST FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT FALLS/RISES ACROSS THE NRN
U.S...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ENHANCE ASCENT
NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS PARCELS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE.  LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AROUND 00Z...THEN POTENTIALLY EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF ND DURING
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR STORM ROTATION
AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CAN
RETURN TO THIS REGION. WITH TIME AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AS LLJ INCREASES
INTO ND LATE.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
OVERNIGHT STORMS.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

ERN EXTENT OF NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP MOIST PLUME SHOULD COINCIDE
WITH JUST ENOUGH FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO WARRANT A THREAT OF
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS TUESDAY.  IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
CAN OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER
PORTIONS OF VA INTO NC.  EVEN SO...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AND AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..DARROW.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.