[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151722
SWODY2
SPC AC 151721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N
DVL 35 ESE DVL 10 WSW FAR 45 WNW AXN 25 E AXN 35 E STC 45 NW EAU 15
SSE EAU 20 NNW LSE 15 SE RST 15 NNE FRM 25 SSW ATY 30 NW MBG 30 SSW
DIK 30 N GDV 60 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW TUS 20 SE PRC
35 NNW EED 20 SE DAG 20 ENE PRB 40 E UKI 25 SE MHS 20 SSW 4LW 70 E
4LW 90 WNW OWY 30 S BOI 50 ENE BOI 55 WSW 27U 55 E S80 45 NE S80 40
W S06 20 SSW 63S 70 ENE BLI ...CONT... 20 WSW INL 40 W IWD 25 NW IMT
20 NNW OSC 30 NNE GRR 10 NW JVL 25 ESE FOD 60 WSW YKN 20 NE LBF 20
NNE GLD 35 E LAA 15 SW EHA 35 SSE DHT 35 WNW PVW 15 NW LBB 35 ENE
LBB 30 E CDS 25 N FSI 35 NNE OKC 30 NE BVO 35 WNW SGF 10 SSE MTO 30
WSW CMH 25 N PIT 10 S ELM 10 N BGM 40 NNW MSV 35 NW EWR 15 SE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CAR 30 WSW HUL
45 SW 3B1 30 E EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NERN
MT...ND/SD...MN...AND WRN WI...

...SYNOPSIS...
BAND OF PREDOMINATELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN STATES ON TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGER IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BRINING A FRONTAL INTRUSION SEWD ACROSS THE ERN
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE TRAILING SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL
EXTEND WWD TO THE UPR MS VLY...AND NWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN LEE
TROUGHING AND ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT ACROSS THE
FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MN.

EXTENSIVE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SRN STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SWD. RESIDUAL/DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION AMIDST
RELATIVELY SLACK MID LEVEL FLOW.

...EXTREME NERN MT/DAKOTAS/MN AND A SMALL PART OF WRN WI...
DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH MONDAY...A NARROW
AXIS OF 60S F DEWPOINTS AND PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE UPR MS VLY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST NAM AND ENSEMBLE RUN OF THE ETAKF BOTH FCST AN AXIS OF
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP BENEATH 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS SRN MN BY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND RELATIVELY
WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...FRONTAL ZONE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS NWRN ND
AND EXTREME NERN MT AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. AS NEXT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE APPROACHES...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE FRONT SHOULD AID
STORM INITIATION. STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR... ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. STORM MERGERS AND
STRENGTHENING MASS INFLOW ON THE NOSE OF LLJ ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS NRN ND.

...ERN WY TO NERN CO...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THESE AREAS... COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...LEE-TROUGH CONVERGENCE...AND LARGE SCALE HEIGHT
FALLS...SHOULD ALL LEND SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
HIGH WINDS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KT. 
ANTICIPATED AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND
FORCING. HOWEVER...PARTS OF HIGH PLAINS REGION MAY BE UPGRADED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS AS SCENARIO BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

...MID ATLANTIC...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING. IN ADDITION TO SEA/BAY
BREEZES...FEATURES AIDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE STALLED ACROSS DELMARVA AREA...AND LEE TROUGHING SSWWD ALONG
THE PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR
GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WLY FLOW OVER
PRIOR DAYS IS POSSIBLE AS SHORT WAVE PASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH.
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF STRONG
DOWNBURSTS TO EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE DELINEATED IN LATER
FORECASTS...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF
VA/NC.

..CARBIN.. 08/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.