[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130607
SWODY2
SPC AC 130606

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CZZ 25 ESE NID
25 S TPH ELY 50 SSE SLC 30 ESE VEL 50 WSW LAR 15 WNW CYS 20 NNW AKO
15 ENE GLD 50 NNE GCK 20 S RSL 20 W LWD 25 WSW RFD 35 WSW GRR 20 NE
MTC ...CONT... 25 NNW SYR 20 ESE PSM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY OUT OF THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
REGION...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD.  DESPITE WEAK/NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...INCREASED
VERTICAL ASCENT DOWNSTREAM ALONG OLD FRONTAL ZONE WOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE THREAT BY MID DAY FROM IND/OH...EWD TOWARD SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  MODELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE WEST
EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY ON THE ORDER OF 25KT.  MULTICELL UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF EVOLVING INTO SHORT BOW SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.  OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY MOIST PLUME
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.5-2 INCHES...FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 08/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.