[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121740
SWODY2
SPC AC 121739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE
AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 10 WNW SAT
15 ENE AUS 35 ESE LFK 30 W ELD 40 ENE PBF 35 ESE PAH 20 SSE MDH 30
SSE UMN 50 SE SPS 35 NNE SJT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IPL 20 W EED 45
W P38 35 WSW MLF 30 NE U17 30 W MTJ 35 W EGE 30 SW CAG 50 NE EVW 25
WSW JAC 40 ENE WEY 40 ENE RIW 35 W CDR 45 ENE ANW 50 SW FOD 20 E CID
20 SSE MKE 40 ESE OSC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / DEEPEN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CONUS AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA
MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THOUGH STRONGER BELT
OF CYCLONIC / WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD THIS
PERIOD...STRONGER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
THUS...ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY -- EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS --
SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS / CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MO
/ MID MS VALLEYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET.  THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST...WHILE NEW STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY. 
ALONG WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER / SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STORMS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP IN ELY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CO...AND IN
WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  

DESPITE WHAT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INVOF FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS CO WHERE VEERING DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS
PENDING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...AND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE MODERATE WLY FLOW AT LOW- TO
MID-LEVELS COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SMALL-SCALE LINES.

..GOSS.. 08/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.