[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120620
SWODY2
SPC AC 120619

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE IPL 50 SW LAS
20 NW P38 30 WSW PUC 30 NNE VEL 50 WSW RWL 30 NW LAR 15 ESE CYS 40
SSW IML 15 ENE HLC 30 SW BIE 40 SSW FOD 45 SE RST 20 SE OSH 55 SE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 35 ESE
AUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CRP 35 WNW VCT
35 SE CLL 25 NNE POE 45 ENE MLU 45 WSW MEM 50 S HRO 20 S DUA 35 SSE
ABI DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SURGES WILL REINFORCE BROAD ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...NEWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  EACH SUCCESSIVE AIRMASS INTRUSION
APPEARS MORE FALL-LIKE IN REGARDS TO FRONTAL SLOPE WITH WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG LEADING WIND SHIFT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG
THIS ZONE OF INTEREST SUGGEST DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL PROVE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE DIURNAL
CYCLE...LIKELY BY 18Z...IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FLOW AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT'S NOT
PARTICULARLY EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING WHETHER ANY WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE NEWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCING LOCAL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION WITHIN DEEPER PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.  WITH TIME LARGE SCALE PATTERN
AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  AT ANY
RATE...DEEP...MOIST SWLY TRAJECTORIES ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC CONVECTIVE EVENTS...MODULATED BY DIURNAL
HEATING FOR AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. 
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES NEAR THE
WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER FORECASTING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
ANY PARTICULAR REGION FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE
ARDUOUS AT BEST.

..DARROW.. 08/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.