[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 111747
SWODY2
SPC AC 111746

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
DEN 55 NNE LAR 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 40 W 9V9 40 SW MHE
25 SSW YKN 15 N GRI 30 SSE LBF 45 WNW GLD 30 SW DEN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE
ISP 25 ENE IPT 30 S JHW 10 SSW MFD 30 ESE BMG 30 S STL 55 SSW SZL 30
ESE EMP FNB 25 SW LWD 15 SW IRK 20 WNW MMO 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 35
NE PBG 40 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 30 E RAL
60 S DRA 50 NNW DRA 50 SSE ELY 15 ESE U24 40 NW 4BL 25 N EGE 45 WSW
LAR 35 WNW LND 55 SSW 27U 45 WNW PUW 15 NE 63S 40 N MSO 60 NNW SHR
25 SW Y22 40 NW AXN 10 SE ALO 30 N APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 35 N ESF
40 NNW ELD 35 SE FSI 55 ESE LBB 10 SSE MAF 20 SE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO
MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN WY / NERN CO / SRN SD
/ MUCH OF NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND / SHIFT SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH STRONGER BELT OF WLYS AFFECTING THE NRN
THIRD OF THE CONUS.

COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD ACROSS NRN MO INTO KS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. 
MEANWHILE...FRONT SHOULD LINGER / PERHAPS DRIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS
AND INTO NRN OK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOL AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  

AS FRONT MOVES EWD /  DRIFTS SWD...IT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT -- THROUGH
THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

... SRN NEW ENGLAND / LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO MO...
AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EXPECT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF
IL / MO INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT -- AS WELL AS ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND INVOF WARM FRONT.  

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THOUGH LOCALLY
STRONG / SEVERE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS MO / IL /
IN...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL --  IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  

SCATTERED STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INVOF FRONT / WITHIN
WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION.

...ERN WY / NERN CO INTO SRN SD / NEB...
THOUGH MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF THIS REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS SWD OF SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST -- BOTH
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO / SERN WY...AND MORE
GENERALLY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND
SRN SD.

WITH 30 TO 40 KT WLY FLOW ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE SLY / SELY FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE /
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.  AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY
MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS -- ALONG WITH CONTINUED /LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT.

..GOSS.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.