[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 110601
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25
S MFD 15 ESE DAY 20 SSE HUF 20 SSW STL 50 SSW SZL 30 E EMP FNB 15
NNE BRL 35 NNE CGX 30 NNE MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
AKO 15 NNW CYS 35 NNW DGW 20 SSE 81V 15 SSE RAP 30 WSW ANW 45 W EAR
20 SW MCK 35 SE AKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 15 NW NID
25 ENE MER 60 SSE RBL 45 SE MHS 55 NE SVE 25 E LOL 65 E U31 15 ESE
U24 10 NNW CNY 40 WNW ASE 35 SSW RWL 35 WNW LND 40 W 27U 25 NE PUW
35 N 3TH 45 ENE HLN 20 N BIL 10 E 4BQ 35 W ABR 30 N STC 20 NE IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW 3B1 15 SW ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE BPT 25 WNW HEZ
10 SSW GLH 65 S UNO 35 S JLN 40 S PNC 15 NNE LTS 45 SE MAF 25 SE
P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...OH VALLEY TO MO...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO WY.  THIS LEAD FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM NRN MO INTO EXTREME SERN LOWER MI.  DESPITE
MARGINAL WSW DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS PROFILES WILL FAVOR
BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP/MOIST...YET MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY INITIATION
MAY LIMIT HEATING ALONG OLD WIND SHIFT...HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG ERN FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...ERN WY TO WRN NEB...

THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WY INTO NEB AHEAD OF STRONG FRONTAL SURGE. 
MODELS INSIST A RATHER DEEP ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVELS...AT
LEAST THROUGH 2KM...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS PARCELS NEAR THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS FLOW VEERS
AND INCREASES AT HIGH LEVELS WITHIN BASE OF SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH.
 LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN NEB BEFORE
SPREADING ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE.  ONE POSSIBLE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR AN EXPANSIVE MCS OVER THIS REGION IS THE
LIKLIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS
INTERCEPTING A MORE FOCUSED LLJ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AT ANY
RATE...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH MID
EVENING BEFORE AN EVOLUTION TO A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 08/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.