[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 100613
SWODY2
SPC AC 100612

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
RRT 40 E FAR 25 S RWF 40 E SUX 35 ENE BUB 25 E AIA 45 ESE DGW 30 S
GCC 35 WSW GDV 65 NW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S
ALO 45 S LSE 10 ESE LNR 15 NE CGX 10 S SBN 35 WSW FWA 20 WSW IND 10
NNW MTO 30 NE UIN 20 NNE OTM 15 S ALO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE OXR 50 ENE PRB
25 NNW TVL 15 SSE WMC 60 NE EKO 30 WNW MLD 15 SW BPI 30 ESE JAC 10
SSW DLN 35 S S06 10 SSE GEG 35 W 4OM 30 WNW BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE ERI 30 SE BFD
10 SSW MSV 25 NW ORH PWM 40 N AUG 50 NW 3B1.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ERN IA/SRN
WI TO NRN INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW FROM THE NWRN STATES TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...REACHING SRN
MANITOBA/SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z FRIDAY.  MEANWHILE...A LEAD UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD TRACK NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE MARITIME PROVINCES...
WITH SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE NRN ONE THIRD OF THE
U.S. WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

...ERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/NRN IND...
AN MCS...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY TO PARTS
OF SRN MN AND IA.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MCV WITH THIS MCS WILL
TRACK EWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
RETREAT NEWD ACROSS IA/IL/IND TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. 
SWLY LLJ AND WAA REGIME SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE
EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WAA CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  MODELS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT AND ONGOING MCS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP
TO 1500 J/KG/...WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
MULTICELLS.  A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LOCALLY STRONGER.  

...NRN PLAINS...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SWRN
IA SWWD TO WRN KS ON THURSDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TRACK ENE
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO ONTARIO. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS.  MODELS
SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
MT/ERN WY INTO WRN DAKOTAS...AND ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER. INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  FURTHER INCREASE IN WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB/SD SUGGESTS UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS ACROSS THIS REGION.

FARTHER S ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN CANADA
ON THURSDAY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTEND FROM OFF THE NE COAST TO VA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS.  A PLUME OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
EXTEND FROM THE ERN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE FRONT MOVES ESE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS THIS
REGION REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.

..PETERS.. 08/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.