[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 091711
SWODY2
SPC AC 091710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 09 2005

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
MHN 20 WSW CDR 25 NNW 81V 20 S MLS 40 SE GDV 30 ENE Y22 20 NNW MHE
30 SSW YKN 20 SE MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW LTS 10 SE OKC
MKO 15 WSW SGF 15 SSE SZL 25 NE MKC 15 NNW SLN LBL 10 SW DHT CVS 10
SE PVW 10 NNW LTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW DVL FAR 45 SSW
AXN 10 NNE MKT 20 ESE LSE GRB 25 ESE ANJ ...CONT... 45 S VCT 25 NNE
COT 35 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SE CZZ 10 E RAL PMD 20 NNE BFL 40 NNE
FAT 15 SSW TVL 35 ESE SVE 45 NW WMC OWY 45 W SUN 65 NW 27U 75 NW
FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN RESPONSE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER ALASKA...UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA. 
BAND OF STRONG WESTERLIES ALONG U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WILL SLOWLY
DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN TIER OF STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE
CHANGES TO THE N. S/W TROUGHS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR AHEAD.

COOL FRONT MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BY WED AM WILL
STRETCH WSWWD FROM SWRN ONTARIO TO IA AND THEN NWWD ACROSS PLAINS TO
NERN WY/SERN MT.

AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SEWD FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH FRONTAL ZONE SWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS...
SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY NRN HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING S OF FRONTAL ZONE SPREADING
NWWD.  UPSLOPE COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS 40-50KT
OF FLOW AT 500MB DEVELOPS SWD THRU DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS THEY TRACK EWD
ACROSS SD/NRN NEB WED NIGHT.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WED AM NEAR THE COOL FRONT
FROM SRN LWR MI TO IA. WHILE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF FRONT...THE MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAKENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY BY PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR PARAMETERS PRECLUDES
 FORECASTING A RISK AREA ATTM.

..HALES.. 08/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.