[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 081728
SWODY2
SPC AC 081727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
APN 25 WSW MBL 30 S LNR 25 ESE FOD 30 NW SUX 55 W YKN 20 S HON 30 W
STC 60 N EAU 30 SSE CMX 80 NW ANJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CPR SHR 45 NNW COD 20 NE HLN 30 SSE CTB 20 NNW HVR 70 WNW GGW 40 NNE
MLS 45 WNW REJ 15 NNW CDR 15 NNE BFF 40 SE DGW 35 ENE CPR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW DAG 45 ENE
PRB 45 WNW SAC 40 NW MHS 40 SE RDM 20 NNE BNO 30 ESE BAM 25 WSW PUC
45 WSW CAG 15 E RKS 15 SSW JAC IDA 40 SSE BOI 35 ESE BKE 25 SSW MSO
50 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GAG 15 S BVO 25
SE SGF 15 NNW COU 50 SW IRK 15 NW STJ 30 NNE SLN 20 SW DDC 40 N GAG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 40 NNW P24
30 NNW BIS 50 SW GFK 30 ENE FAR 25 ENE HIB 40 N IWD 65 NE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MI WSWWD INTO
SERN SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA / THE NRN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT INITIALLY FORECAST FROM UPPER MI WSWWD
INTO SD SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI
WSWWD INTO KS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MOST ACTIVE / INTENSE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD DEVELOP IN A ZONE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE UPPER LAKES...INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY / BENEATH
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED WLYS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN PLAINS / UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION INVOF COLD
FRONT. LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
STRONGER CLUSTERS OF THIS CONVECTION...WHILE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF
FRONT AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  

NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON --
PARTICULARLY FROM NRN LOWER MI WWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN MN...JUST
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE CROSSING THIS
REGION.  THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN N OF SURFACE
FRONT...SHEAR NEAR / JUST S OF FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
/ HAIL.  STORMS / LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WI /
LOWER MI SUSTAINS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA.


...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL MT / ERN WY ON
COOL SIDE OF FRONT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SWD / WWD AND STALLS ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  THOUGH POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DRY
THUS LIMITING AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MT / ERN WY.  WITH MODERATE WLY FLOW
ALOFT FORECAST ABOVE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON / EVENING.  THEREFORE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED...HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. 
THOUGH CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY SHIFT EWD INTO WRN ND OVERNIGHT AIDED
BY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION SHOULD YIELD ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.