[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 080618
SWODY2
SPC AC 080617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2005

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ANJ 45
NE GRB 25 SSE LSE 15 SW MCW 40 SW SPW 10 SSW FSD 10 SSE ATY 10 ESE
AXN 20 ENE DLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W
CDR SHR 25 SW BIL 50 N BIL 30 NW MLS 50 NNW REJ 35 ESE REJ 45 SE RAP
50 W CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL BFL FAT 25 SW
TVL 15 SSE SVE 75 ESE 4LW 15 ESE BOI 27U MSO 65 NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PVW GAG CNU STL MTO
30 NNE IND 40 S FDY 10 N CAK 35 WSW ERI 15 NE DTW 15 NE LAN 45 NW
BEH 10 SSE RFD 15 SW OTM CNK 35 NW GCK 45 N CAO 10 WSW TCC 55 NNW
HOB 25 W LBB PVW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MT INTO WRN SD...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PRAIRIES.  WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLIGHT
AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD AS A LOW MOVES EWD
FROM SD EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO UPR MI BY 10/12Z.  THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE NWWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS
ERN WY INTO WRN MT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ELEVATED MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF
ND AND NRN MN TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE EWD DURING THE MORNING.  THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70F
RANGE...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.  STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. 
ETA/GFS/CONTROL RUN OF SREF ETAKF ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR THE
FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN UPR MI ACROSS NWRN WI..AND
CENTRAL/SRN MN...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN SD/NNERN
NEB...AND NWRN IA.  MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EWD AND SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS
LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 03-06Z.

...SRN MT INTO WRN SD...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WWD FROM SD INTO S
CENTRAL/SERN MT IN THE UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THIS
AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  ETA AND SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT...SPREADING EWD/SEWD TOWARD
WRN SD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXHIBIT STRONG
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT AS ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER TO 40-45 KT WLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.  THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO
DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 06Z.

..WEISS.. 08/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.