[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 071628
SWODY2
SPC AC 071627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT
AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15
SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW
MMO 30 WSW DBQ 35 S MCW 20 N YKN 45 NNW BFF 25 W CYS 25 N COS 30 SW
LHX 25 SW P28 20 E UMN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL
35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL 80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20
NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK RRT ...CONT... 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV 15 SSW
PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER GRTLKS...

...UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...
SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST WLYS WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE NRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY MON.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSLATE FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PRAIRIES AND INTO
ONT.  FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER GRTLKS REGION. ONE SUCH FRONT WILL
SETTLE SWD ACROSS ERN MT...DAKS...CNTRL MN...NRN WI AND UPPER MI BY
MON EVE.

CONTINUED SLY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VLY BENEATH A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STREAMING
EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  SURFACE BASED PARCELS
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED MUCH OF THE AFTN.  BUT...THERE IS EVIDENCE IN
THE SREF AND LATEST NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT DIURNAL HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM
INITIATION BY LATE AFTN/EVE.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS IN
COMBINATION WITH MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE
TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EWD MON NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER GRTLKS REGION...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME.

...NRN PLAINS...
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/N OF SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT FROM ERN MT EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKS WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE WWD.  TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS
AXIS...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT INITIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW AIDS IN ASCENT.  OTHER TSTMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
AFTER DARK FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKS AS STRONGER LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD AND SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. THESE STORMS
MAY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ATOP THE DEEPENING FRONTAL INVERSION AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP EWD DURING THE NIGHT.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...THOUGH IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE FRONT...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT.

..RACY.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.