[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 070611
SWODY2
SPC AC 070610

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT
AUW MKT 10 W HON 35 NE PHP 40 S REJ 25 WNW REJ 50 WSW DIK DIK JMS 15
SE FAR 25 ESE BJI 25 E INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW VTN 55 S 81V
15 ESE LAR 10 SE COS 40 S LHX 25 SSW P28 20 E UMN BLV 25 SW MMO 30
WSW DBQ 35 SSE FSD 50 NNW VTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MSS 15 ENE MPV
15 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 WSW CZZ 20 SSE RAL 35 NW PMD 40 E FAT TVL
80 ESE 4LW 45 S S80 60 SE FCA 15 SE HVR 20 NNE OLF MOT 35 NNW GFK
RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD
ALONG THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS BORDER REGION TOMORROW AS
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NOW OVER WRN CANADA MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PROVINCES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL MN THEN EXTEND WWD AS A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NRN SD..NERN WY..WRN MT.

...MN INTO WRN UPR MI AND NWRN WI...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F ACROSS THIS REGION TOMORROW.  PLUME
OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) IS FORECAST TO EXTEND EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND NWRN WI/WRN UPPER MI DURING THE
DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG.  MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA AND CONTROL RUN OF THE
SREF ETAKF SUGGEST AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR UPWARD
MOTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL MARGINALLY SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT.  

...PARTS OF DAKOTAS INTO MT...
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY NARROW EAST/WEST AXIS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
NRN SD/SRN ND INTO S CENTRAL/SERN MT...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL 
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN ERN MT TO THE MID 60S IN ERN SD. THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...
INITIALLY OVER MT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WHERE UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL AID ASCENT...AND THEN EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING
THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER NEB AND SD AFTER
DARK.  THE STORMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE
HAIL ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY WITH STORMS
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT.

..WEISS.. 08/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.