[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031647
SWODY2
SPC AC 031646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
MSS 25 N SYR 30 S JHW 20 W MFD 20 WSW LAF 10 NNW BMI 10 W MMO 30 WNW
BEH 65 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 10 SSW RAL 40 NW
DAG 40 SW DRA 45 SW SGU 30 NNW FLG 80 N INW 65 SE U24 MLD 25 N IDA
10 SE 3DU 30 E GTF 75 NE BIL 50 ENE COD 20 SSW CPR AKO 45 E BUB 15
ENE ALO 40 SSE ESC ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION WWD INTO NRN IL / NRN IN / SRN LOWER MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION /
SEWD ACROSS MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA / ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND INTO THE NERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT CONFINED TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS -- MAINLY N OF SURFACE
FRONT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD ACROSS MO / ERN KS...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INVOF COLD FRONT. AS AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES.

THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG
STORMS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES NWD.  IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT WLYS WILL
EXTEND ONLY AS FAR S AS NEB / IA / NRN IL / NRN INDIANA...S OF WHICH
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NELY.  AS A RESULT...GREATEST
 SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST FROM NRN IL / NRN INDIANA / LOWER MI
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHERE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  FURTHER WSWWD ALONG FRONT...WEAK /
GENERALLY ELY WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A LOCAL / LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT WITH DISORGANIZED / PULSE CONVECTION.

THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVERNIGHT AS
BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS / STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.