[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030558
SWODY2
SPC AC 030557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED AUG 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE SAN 25 S PMD
20 E NID 15 SSE TPH 60 SSE TWF 20 W MQM 20 W BIL 60 E BIL 35 NW BFF
25 NNW LBF 30 ESE OFK 25 W MCW 25 E RHI 20 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE 5I3 20 WNW SSU
50 W EKN 15 S PKB 55 ESE LUK 10 NNW SDF 10 ENE CGI 40 SSW UNO 45 NNW
HOT 25 SSE HOT 20 SSE PBF 20 W TUP 10 WNW HSV 10 SSW TYS 40 SE 5I3.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM MANITOBA SWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
SWEEP ENEWD DURING THE PERIOD AND LIFT INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO CANADA...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY...ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL MO AND INTO NERN NM BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...SERN LOWER MI SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO SERN KS/NERN OK...
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITIES AND SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...STRONG SOLAR INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN STRONG HEATING
AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER WITH FRONT THAN ON WEDNESDAY...PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN COOLING THE 850-700 MB LAYER
3-5C...RESULTING IN A WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND WEAKER CAP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING THURSDAY. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING INSTABILITY WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT AT LEAST MID 60
DEWPOINTS YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN IN AND NWRN
OH....BUT THE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THE WEAK WINDS
ALOFT SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND ALSO QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATED. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR
A FEW SHORT LIVED MICROBURSTS...BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MORE
THAN A 5% RISK FOR SEVERE.

..IMY.. 08/03/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.