[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040552
SWODY2
SPC AC 040551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 20 SW PMD BFL 40
NE SCK TVL 40 SSE TPH 55 N P38 50 WNW OGD MLD 35 NNW BPI CPR 50 SSE
DGW SNY 35 NNW GLD RSL EMP COU MFD 20 WNW YNG ERI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD THROUGH
QUEBEC IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NRN ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SRN END
OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY SWD AND EXTEND FROM DELMARVA
SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND THEN INTO SWRN TX BY LATE IN THE DAY.


...NEW ENGLAND AREA...
LATEST NAM/GFS MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER...SATURATED VERTICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THAT
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING CAN OCCUR
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 TO 40 KT AND WSWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT MAY POSE A WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT
RISK.

...DELMARVA WWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO SWRN TX...
CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LENGTH OF COLD 
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WEAK WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW MOVING AND OUTFLOW
DOMINATED STORMS WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..IMY.. 08/04/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.